What a 13-week forecast is for
The purpose is not to predict the exact bank balance three months from now. It is to create an early-warning system showing when receipts, payroll, tax, suppliers and debt payments are likely to put pressure on cash.
1. Start with real opening cash
Use the cleared operating bank balance. Define which accounts are included and avoid double counting transfers.
2. Forecast cash receipts by collection date
Put customer cash into the week you genuinely expect it to arrive, not the week the invoice is raised.
3. Forecast payments by cash date
Schedule payroll, suppliers, stock, VAT, tax, rent, subscriptions, debt and capital spending when the money is expected to leave.
4. Set a cash floor
Choose a management threshold that triggers action before cash reaches zero or an agreed facility limit.
5. Find the first breach
Identify the first week closing cash falls below the floor. That is the week your action plan needs to solve.
6. Run simple downside tests
Move a large receipt later, reduce sales receipts or add an unexpected cost. Watch how the lowest cash point changes.
7. Roll it every week
Replace the completed week with actuals, reconcile cash, add a new Week 13 and update assumptions. Record forecast-versus-actual variances so the forecast improves.
What to do next
The JEBS 13-Week Cash Flow Operating Guide explains the weekly process. Pair it with the JEBS 13-Week Cash Flow Forecast Excel Template to run the numbers.